Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.004106 0.004313 0.004526 0.004761 0.005013 0.005277 0.005574
2025-11-16 0.003726 0.004028 0.004352 0.004725 0.005145 0.005604 0.006149
2025-11-23 0.003499 0.003857 0.004251 0.004718 0.005261 0.005876 0.006633
2025-11-30 0.003290 0.003680 0.004118 0.004650 0.005285 0.006024 0.006962
2025-12-07 0.003124 0.003537 0.004010 0.004595 0.005308 0.006160 0.007271
2025-12-14 0.003007 0.003443 0.003949 0.004587 0.005381 0.006351 0.007649
2025-12-21 0.002840 0.003279 0.003794 0.004454 0.005288 0.006325 0.007743
2025-12-28 0.002762 0.003218 0.003761 0.004466 0.005373 0.006524 0.008134
2026-01-04 0.002710 0.003185 0.003758 0.004513 0.005501 0.006781 0.008614
2026-01-11 0.002627 0.003109 0.003698 0.004483 0.005526 0.006898 0.008906
2026-01-18 0.002560 0.003051 0.003657 0.004474 0.005576 0.007050 0.009251
2026-01-25 0.002486 0.002982 0.003598 0.004439 0.005586 0.007146 0.009518
2026-02-01 0.002461 0.002973 0.003618 0.004510 0.005745 0.007457 0.010125
2026-02-08 0.002393 0.002909 0.003562 0.004475 0.005757 0.007559 0.010421
2026-02-15 0.002341 0.002862 0.003528 0.004469 0.005805 0.007714 0.010808
2026-02-22 0.002271 0.002789 0.003456 0.004406 0.005770 0.007744 0.010994
2026-03-01 0.002209 0.002724 0.003394 0.004355 0.005749 0.007791 0.011210
2026-03-08 0.002166 0.002685 0.003364 0.004347 0.005790 0.007934 0.011590
2026-03-15 0.002083 0.002590 0.003256 0.004224 0.005655 0.007798 0.011495
2026-03-22 0.002053 0.002564 0.003241 0.004235 0.005721 0.007977 0.011943
2026-03-29 0.002035 0.002555 0.003250 0.004279 0.005836 0.008238 0.012553
2026-04-05 0.001993 0.002513 0.003210 0.004251 0.005840 0.008322 0.012850
2026-04-12 0.001961 0.002482 0.003185 0.004243 0.005874 0.008454 0.013243